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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Galway United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over St Patrick's Athl..

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Galway United beat St Patrick's Athl. 3-1 at Eamonn Deacy Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Galway United 1.20 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.01 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Galway United beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galway United attack 0.94 / defence 1.06 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.85 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Galway United 40% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 31%, with Galway United to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galway United 22%, St Patrick's Athl. 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Galway United's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Galway United 1.44 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Galway United win broke the near-deadlock. Galway United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights