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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Galway United and Shelbourne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Eamonn Deacy Park, Regular Season - 22, as Galway United and Shelbourne drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Galway United 1.25 xG and Shelbourne 1.15 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galway United attack 1.04 / defence 1.07 against Shelbourne attack 0.99 / defence 0.90, drawn from 57/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Galway United 38% | Draw 28% | Shelbourne 34%, with Galway United to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galway United 22%, Shelbourne 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Galway United's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Shelbourne's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Galway United 1.44 PPG, Shelbourne 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights