🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Galway United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Eamonn Deacy Park, Regular Season - 27, as Galway United and Shamrock Rovers drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Galway United 1.43 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.67 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Galway United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galway United attack 1.07 / defence 1.28 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.24 / defence 1.00, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Galway United 33% | Draw 24% | Shamrock Rovers 43%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galway United 32%, Shamrock Rovers 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Galway United's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Galway United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights