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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Galway United defy the odds to beat Drogheda United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Galway United beat Drogheda United 2-1 at Eamonn Deacy Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Galway United 0.97 xG and Drogheda United 1.32 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Galway United beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galway United attack 0.99 / defence 1.04 against Drogheda United attack 1.04 / defence 0.76, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Galway United 27% | Draw 29% | Drogheda United 44%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Galway United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galway United 22%, Drogheda United 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Galway United's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Drogheda United's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Galway United arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Galway United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights