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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Galway United edge out Cork City 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Galway United beat Cork City 2-1 at Eamonn Deacy Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Galway United 1.71 xG and Cork City 0.81 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galway United attack 0.83 / defence 1.15 against Cork City attack 0.68 / defence 1.51, drawn from 67/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Galway United 58% | Draw 26% | Cork City 17%, with Galway United to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galway United 42%, Cork City 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Galway United's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Cork City's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Galway United 1.00 PPG, Cork City 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Galway United win broke the near-deadlock. Galway United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights