🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Galway United edge out Cork City 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Galway United beat Cork City 2-1 at Eamonn Deacy Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Galway United 1.65 xG and Cork City 1.19 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galway United attack 0.88 / defence 1.08 against Cork City attack 0.98 / defence 1.39, drawn from 52/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Galway United 48% | Draw 24% | Cork City 28%, with Galway United to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galway United 22%, Cork City 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Galway United's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Cork City's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Galway United arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Galway United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights