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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Galway United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bohemians.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Galway United beat Bohemians 2-0 at Eamonn Deacy Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Galway United 1.06 xG and Bohemians 1.18 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Galway United beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galway United attack 0.87 / defence 1.17 against Bohemians attack 1.01 / defence 0.89, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Galway United 32% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 39%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Galway United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galway United 32%, Bohemians 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Galway United's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Bohemians's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Galway United 1.26 PPG, Bohemians 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Galway United win broke the near-deadlock. Galway United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights