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Shock result as Bohemians defy the odds to beat Galway United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians beat Galway United 1-2 at Eamonn Deacy Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Galway United 1.41 xG and Bohemians 1.24 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galway United attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Bohemians attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Galway United 39% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 32%, with Galway United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galway United 22%, Bohemians 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Galway United's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Bohemians's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Galway United 1.44 PPG, Bohemians 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Galway United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights