Finn Harps 2-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. meet at Finn Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 June 2022 at 20:00 UTC.

Form

Finn Harps (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Finn Harps have posted 3W 5D 2L at Finn Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

St Patrick's Athl.'s away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Finn Harps have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, St Patrick's Athl. in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to St Patrick's Athl., who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. St Patrick's Athl. have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Finn Harps — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 61% versus St Patrick's Athl. 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 58% | St Patrick's Athl. 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 0.67 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.720 / defence 1.165 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.098 / defence 0.743. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.041. Finn Harps's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence strength of 0.743 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Finn Harps games / 56 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Finn Harps 19% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 53%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | St Patrick's Athl. 1.89. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. This conflicts with form data: Finn Harps 70% | St Patrick's Athl. 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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