Dundalk 0-2 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dundalk host Waterford at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 June 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Dundalk's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Oriel Park this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Waterford — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Waterford have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dundalk at 1.80 PPG versus Waterford's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Dundalk have won 1, Waterford 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 1–4 with Waterford winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.91 xG and Waterford 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.703 / defence 0.716 | Waterford attack 0.931 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 0.971. Dundalk's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dundalk's defence rating of 0.716 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Dundalk games / 21 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 40% | Draw 35% | Waterford 25%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Waterford 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.56. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.56 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Waterford's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jun 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 40% | Draw 35% | Waterford 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 28% | xG Dundalk 0.91 / Waterford 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.703 / def 0.716 | Waterford attack 0.931 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.226 / away 0.971 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Waterford xG
28%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Waterford kick off?
Dundalk vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 28 June 2024 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Waterford?
Dundalk 0 - 2 Waterford.
Where is Dundalk vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Waterford part of?
Dundalk vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 40% chance of winning, Waterford a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Dundalk and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Waterford?
Record (5 meetings): Dundalk 1W | Draws 2 | Waterford 2W.
What form are Dundalk and Waterford in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Waterford (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (0.70) and Waterford's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.6%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
40%
2.51
35%
2.82
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Dundalk xG
Total xG
1.56
0.65
Waterford xG
2.51
40%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.51
72%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.1 | 13.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 12.4 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.7%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.65 for Waterford, a combined total of 1.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dundalk come into this having played 2 games, going 2W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W. It's still early in the season for Dundalk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Waterford sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Waterford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dundalk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Dundalk are averaging 3.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Dundalk's scoring rate against Waterford's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Early Season
Waterford
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Waterford in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Dundalk or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Waterford in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dundalk and Waterford runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2026, when Dundalk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dundalk
3
Draws
5
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 2, Waterford have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Dundalk 2-3 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Waterford?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dundalk's recent matches and 50% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dundalk's recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Waterford cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Dundalk 0-2 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.91 xG and Waterford 0.65 xG, a combined 1.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dundalk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Waterford outscored their 0.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.70 / defence 0.72 against Waterford attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 57/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 40% | Draw 35% | Waterford 25%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 50%, Waterford 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Waterford winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dundalk managed 0 against a 3.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waterford scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.