Dundalk 1-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Dundalk take on St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Oriel Park to take on Dundalk. The game is scheduled for Thursday 5 September 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Oriel Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St Patrick's Athl. are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Dundalk have won 1, St Patrick's Athl. 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2024, ended 3–2 with Dundalk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 47% versus St Patrick's Athl. 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 42% | St Patrick's Athl. 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.88 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.697 / defence 1.058 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.881 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 0.950. Dundalk's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Dundalk games / 64 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 32% | Draw 36% | St Patrick's Athl. 32%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 10% | St Patrick's Athl. 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 32% | Draw 36% | St Patrick's Athl. 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Dundalk 0.88 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.697 / def 1.058 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.881 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.365 / away 0.950 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.89
St Patrick's Athl. xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 5 September 2024 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Dundalk 1 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 32% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (6 meetings): Dundalk 1W | Draws 2 | St Patrick's Athl. 3W.
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Dundalk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 0.70x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
36%
2.78
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Dundalk xG
Total xG
1.76
0.89
St Patrick's Athl. xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 15.2 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.89 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dundalk come into this having played 64 games, going 22W 16D 26L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.52 PPG from 64 outings (28W 13D 23L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dundalk on 1.28 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Dundalk's home form reads 14W 9D 8L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.23 points per game from 31 outings (10W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dundalk are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.42 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 22W 16D 26L in their last 64 games (1.28 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 28W 13D 23L in their last 64 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Dundalk's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.65 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Dundalk or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dundalk
3
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 39%, St Patrick's Athl. 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Dundalk) and 52% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Dundalk have failed to score in 36% of games; St Patrick's Athl. in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Dundalk's recent matches and 52% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Dundalk's recent games and 52% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Dundalk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Dundalk 1-2 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.88 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.89 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.70 / defence 1.06 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.88 / defence 0.92, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 32% | Draw 36% | St Patrick's Athl. 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual St Patrick's Athl. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 42%, St Patrick's Athl. 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.28 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.