Dundalk 0-0 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Shelbourne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Friday 3 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dundalk have posted 6W 3D 1L at Oriel Park — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shelbourne's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shelbourne's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Dundalk, 2.10 for Shelbourne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dundalk lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Shelbourne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 50% versus Shelbourne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 51% | Shelbourne 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.79 xG and Shelbourne 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.738 / defence 1.025 | Shelbourne attack 1.144 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 0.946. Dundalk's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Dundalk games / 49 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 25% | Draw 34% | Shelbourne 42%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 4.00 | Draw 2.94 | Shelbourne 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 60% | Shelbourne 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 25% | Draw 34% | Shelbourne 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Dundalk 0.79 / Shelbourne 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.738 / def 1.025 | Shelbourne attack 1.144 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.188 / away 0.946 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Shelbourne xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Shelbourne kick off?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Dundalk 0 - 0 Shelbourne.
Where is Dundalk vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Shelbourne part of?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 25% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 42% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Dundalk and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
Record (4 meetings): Dundalk 0W | Draws 2 | Shelbourne 2W.
What form are Dundalk and Shelbourne in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 0.74x the league average against Shelbourne's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (1.14x) against Dundalk's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
25%
4.07
34%
2.96
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Dundalk xG
Total xG
1.90
1.11
Shelbourne xG
4.07
25%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.35
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 16.6 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.11 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dundalk's recent record stands at 34W 19D 19L from 72 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 25W 26D 21L across 72 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Dundalk against 1.40 for Shelbourne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 22W 10D 4L from 36 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 11W 13D 12L across 36 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.17 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 34W 19D 19L in their last 72 games (1.68 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 25W 26D 21L in their last 72 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Shelbourne away?
Dundalk's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.11 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shelbourne have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
3
Draws
6
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Shelbourne have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, Shelbourne 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Dundalk) and 33% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Shelbourne in 39%; Shelbourne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Dundalk's recent matches and 42% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Dundalk's recent games and 33% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dundalk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk and Shelbourne finished level at 0-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.79 xG and Shelbourne 1.11 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shelbourne landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.74 / defence 1.02 against Shelbourne attack 1.14 / defence 0.90, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 25% | Draw 34% | Shelbourne 42%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 51%, Shelbourne 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.68 PPG, Shelbourne 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.