Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
53%
1.89
28%
3.60
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.57
0.92
Galway United xG
DundalkDrawGalway United
1.89
53%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
4%
26.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
1.648
λ Away (xG)
0.922
Total xG
2.570
League avg home goals
1.389
League avg away goals
1.117
Dundalk attack strength
1.190
Dundalk defence strength
0.911
Galway United attack strength
0.906
Galway United defence strength
0.997
Data phase
CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A)
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