Dundalk 0-2 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Bohemians meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Oriel Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Dundalk, 2 for Bohemians and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 48% versus Bohemians 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 46% | Bohemians 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.88 xG and Bohemians 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.734 / defence 1.177 | Bohemians attack 1.029 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 0.901. Dundalk's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Dundalk games / 66 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 28% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 39%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Bohemians 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 20% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 28% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Dundalk 0.88 / Bohemians 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.734 / def 1.177 | Bohemians attack 1.029 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.361 / away 0.901 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Bohemians xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Bohemians kick off?
Dundalk vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Dundalk 0 - 2 Bohemians.
Where is Dundalk vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Bohemians part of?
Dundalk vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 28% chance of winning, Bohemians a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Dundalk and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
Record (6 meetings): Dundalk 2W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 2W.
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in?
Dundalk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Bohemians (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (0.73) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.03x) against Dundalk's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 67/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
28%
3.54
33%
3.07
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Dundalk xG
Total xG
1.98
1.09
Bohemians xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
9%
10.56
16%
6.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 15.2 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.09 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 22W 15D 29L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 24W 19D 23L from 66 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Dundalk against 1.38 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 1.59 PPG from 32 outings (14W 9D 9L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 10W 10D 12L from 32 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.27 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 22W 15D 29L in their last 66 games (1.23 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 24W 19D 23L in their last 66 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Bohemians away?
Dundalk's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.59 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dundalk
3
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 3, Bohemians have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 41%, Bohemians 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Dundalk) and 38% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Bohemians in 34%; Dundalk have failed to score in 34% of games; Bohemians in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Dundalk's recent matches and 44% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Dundalk's recent games and 38% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Bohemians tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Dundalk 0-2 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.88 xG and Bohemians 1.09 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dundalk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bohemians outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.73 / defence 1.18 against Bohemians attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 67/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 28% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 39%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 46%, Bohemians 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.23 PPG, Bohemians 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.