🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Drogheda United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Waterford.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Drogheda United beat Waterford 2-0 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.41 xG and Waterford 1.14 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Waterford landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Waterford attack 1.11 / defence 1.09, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 42% | Draw 29% | Waterford 29%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 57%, Waterford 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Drogheda United's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.00 PPG, Waterford 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Drogheda United win broke the near-deadlock. Drogheda United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights