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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as St Patrick's Athl. defy the odds to beat Drogheda United 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St Patrick's Athl. beat Drogheda United 0-1 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.05 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.75 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Drogheda United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.86 / defence 0.81 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 41% | Draw 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 25%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a St Patrick's Athl. win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 49%, St Patrick's Athl. 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Drogheda United's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.25 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights