🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Drogheda United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 11, as Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.34 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.16 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Drogheda United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.20 / defence 0.90 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.03 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 41% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 32%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 56%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights