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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Drogheda United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sligo Rovers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Drogheda United beat Sligo Rovers 3-0 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.51 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.01 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Drogheda United beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sligo Rovers landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.00 / defence 1.14, drawn from 37/37 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 48% | Draw 29% | Sligo Rovers 24%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 56%, Sligo Rovers 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.07 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Drogheda United win broke the near-deadlock. Drogheda United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights