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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Drogheda United and Shelbourne share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Drogheda United and Shelbourne finished level at 2-2 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.02 xG and Shelbourne 0.87 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Drogheda United beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shelbourne outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.11 / defence 0.86 against Shelbourne attack 0.94 / defence 0.73, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 38% | Draw 33% | Shelbourne 29%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 56%, Shelbourne 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Drogheda United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights