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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Shamrock Rovers defy the odds to beat Drogheda United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shamrock Rovers beat Drogheda United 1-2 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.38 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.78 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.09 / defence 0.84 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.89 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 50% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 20%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Shamrock Rovers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 56%, Shamrock Rovers 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Drogheda United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights