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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Drogheda United edge out Cork City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Drogheda United beat Cork City 1-0 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.82 xG and Cork City 0.64 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Drogheda United fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Cork City attack 0.73 / defence 1.50, drawn from 69/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 66% | Draw 22% | Cork City 12%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 39%, Cork City 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Drogheda United's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cork City's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Drogheda United arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Drogheda United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights