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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Drogheda United edge out Cork City 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Drogheda United beat Cork City 3-2 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.75 xG and Cork City 0.74 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Drogheda United beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cork City outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.02 / defence 0.84 against Cork City attack 0.74 / defence 1.25, drawn from 49/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 61% | Draw 25% | Cork City 14%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 57%, Cork City 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Drogheda United's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.00 PPG, Cork City 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Drogheda United win broke the near-deadlock. Drogheda United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cork City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights