🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Drogheda United edge out Bohemians 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Drogheda United beat Bohemians 1-0 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.31 xG and Bohemians 1.18 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against Bohemians attack 1.08 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 40% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 33%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 56%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.07 PPG, Bohemians 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Drogheda United win broke the near-deadlock. Drogheda United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights