Derry City vs Waterford – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Derry City 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waterford beat Derry City 1-2 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.51 xG and Waterford 1.03 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Waterford outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Waterford attack 1.22 / defence 1.14, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Derry City 48% | Draw 26% | Waterford 26%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Waterford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 43%, Waterford 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derry City's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derry City 1.57 PPG, Waterford 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waterford win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights