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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier Division · Regular Season - 14

Kick-off

Mon 5 May 2025

19:45

Venue

The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Competition

Premier Division

Ireland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Derry City Win

41%

Derry City

2.45

30%

Draw

3.29

29%

St Patrick's Athl.

3.48

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

13.5%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

13.2%

Draw

0 – 0

11.0%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.22

Derry City xG

Total xG

2.21

0.98

St Patrick's Athl. xG

41%
30%
29%
Derry CityDrawSt Patrick's Athl.

2.45

41%

Home win

3.29

30%

Draw

3.48

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

65%

Over 1.5

1.54

35%

Under 1.5

2.86

38%

Over 2.5

2.63

62%

Under 2.5

1.61

18%

Over 3.5

5.56

82%

Under 3.5

1.22

7%

Over 4.5

14.29

93%

Under 4.5

1.08

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

45%

BTTS Yes

2.22

55%

BTTS No

1.82

Clean Sheet

37%

Derry City

2.67

29%

St Patrick's Athl.

3.40

Win to Nil

15%

Derry City

6.54

8%

St Patrick's Athl.

11.81

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 11.0 10.8 5.3 1.7 0.4 0.1
1 13.5 13.2 6.5 2.1 0.5 0.1
2 8.2 8.1 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.1
3 3.4 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.1
4 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.2
5 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.223
λ Away (xG) 0.983
Total xG 2.206
League avg home goals 1.361
League avg away goals 1.201
Derry City attack strength 1.086
Derry City defence strength 0.880
St Patrick's Athl. attack strength 0.930
St Patrick's Athl. defence strength 0.828
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 49 / 49