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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Sligo Rovers 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derry City beat Sligo Rovers 1-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.71 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.15 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sligo Rovers landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.15 / defence 1.03 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.09 / defence 1.08, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derry City 50% | Draw 26% | Sligo Rovers 24%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 43%, Sligo Rovers 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derry City's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derry City 1.56 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights