Derry City 1-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Derry City (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Derry City face Dundalk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium to face Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 9 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dundalk (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Derry City's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Dundalk's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Derry City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dundalk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Derry City have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with Dundalk managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Derry City and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Derry City — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 40% versus Dundalk 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 45% | Dundalk 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 2.15 xG and Dundalk 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.414 / defence 0.972 | Dundalk attack 0.906 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 0.957. Derry City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.414 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Derry City games / 62 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 67% | Draw 20% | Dundalk 13%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Dundalk 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 60% | Dundalk 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 67% | Draw 20% | Dundalk 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 51% | xG Derry City 2.15 / Dundalk 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.414 / def 0.972 | Dundalk attack 0.906 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.279 / away 0.957 • Poisson stance: Derry City (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Dundalk xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Dundalk kick off?
Derry City vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 9 August 2024 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Dundalk?
Derry City 1 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Derry City vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Dundalk part of?
Derry City vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 67% chance of winning, Dundalk a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Derry City and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Dundalk?
Record (5 meetings): Derry City 3W | Draws 2 | Dundalk 0W.
What form are Derry City and Dundalk in?
Derry City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Dundalk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Derry City's attack rating (1.41) and Dundalk's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.91x) against Derry City's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
67%
1.49
20%
5.03
13%
7.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.99
0.84
Dundalk xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
7.62
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
12%
8.58
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
2%
65.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Derry City and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Derry City and 0.84 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derry City's recent record stands at 30W 20D 12L from 62 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 25L across 62 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derry City by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 18W 8D 5L from 31 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 8W 5D 18L across 31 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.24 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 30W 20D 12L in their last 62 games (1.77 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 22W 15D 25L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Dundalk away?
Derry City's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 2.00 PPG; Dundalk away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Derry City or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Dundalk in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 15 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Derry City
5
Draws
1
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, Dundalk have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Dundalk 2-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Dundalk?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 39%, Dundalk 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Derry City) and 42% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Derry City have failed to score in 26% of games; Dundalk in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Derry City's recent matches and 52% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Derry City's recent games and 42% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Dundalk tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derry City and Dundalk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City and Dundalk finished level at 1-1 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 2.15 xG and Dundalk 0.84 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Derry City fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.41 / defence 0.97 against Dundalk attack 0.91 / defence 1.19, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 67% | Draw 20% | Dundalk 13%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 45%, Dundalk 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Dundalk's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.