Derry City 5-1 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs Drogheda United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derry City and Drogheda United meet at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 June 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Derry City have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry City have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Drogheda United (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Drogheda United's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Derry City's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Derry City, 0 for Drogheda United and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 42% versus Drogheda United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 40% | Drogheda United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 2.49 xG and Drogheda United 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.378 / defence 0.942 | Drogheda United attack 0.795 / defence 1.474. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 0.971. Derry City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.378 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.474 — this is suppressing Derry City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Derry City games / 57 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 76% | Draw 15% | Drogheda United 9%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.32 | Draw 6.67 | Drogheda United 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Derry City 30% | Drogheda United 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jun 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 76% | Draw 15% | Drogheda United 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 47% | xG Derry City 2.49 / Drogheda United 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.378 / def 0.942 | Drogheda United attack 0.795 / def 1.474 | league avg home 1.226 / away 0.971 • Poisson stance: Derry City (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Drogheda United xG
47%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Drogheda United kick off?
Derry City vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 28 June 2024 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Drogheda United?
Derry City 5 - 1 Drogheda United.
Where is Derry City vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Drogheda United part of?
Derry City vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 76% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 9% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Derry City and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Drogheda United?
Record (1 meetings): Derry City 0W | Draws 1 | Drogheda United 0W.
What form are Derry City and Drogheda United in?
Derry City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Derry City's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Drogheda United's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.49. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (0.80x) against Derry City's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 59/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
76%
1.32
15%
6.54
9%
11.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Derry City xG
Total xG
3.22
0.73
Drogheda United xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.54
15%
Draw
11.34
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
8%
12.05
Win to Nil
37%
2.73
1%
136.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Derry City and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Derry City and 0.73 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Drogheda United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derry City's recent record stands at 36W 23D 13L from 72 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Drogheda United, meanwhile, have gone 19W 22D 31L across 72 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derry City by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Drogheda United heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 17W 13D 6L from 36 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Drogheda United's away record stands at 7W 10D 19L across 36 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derry City are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.03 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 36W 23D 13L in their last 72 games (1.82 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 19W 22D 31L in their last 72 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Drogheda United away?
Derry City's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.78 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Derry City or Drogheda United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Drogheda United in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 5-1 on 28 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Derry City
4
Draws
3
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 3, Drogheda United have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Derry City 2-0 Drogheda United.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 36%, Drogheda United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Derry City) and 53% (Drogheda United).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Derry City have failed to score in 31% of games; Drogheda United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Drogheda United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Derry City's recent matches and 56% of Drogheda United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Derry City's recent games and 53% of Drogheda United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Drogheda United tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derry City run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Drogheda United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Drogheda United 5-1 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 2.49 xG and Drogheda United 0.73 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Derry City beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.38 / defence 0.94 against Drogheda United attack 0.80 / defence 1.47, drawn from 59/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 76% | Draw 15% | Drogheda United 9%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 40%, Drogheda United 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Drogheda United (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.