Derry City 1-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derry City and Bohemians meet at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Derry City have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry City have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bohemians's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Derry City's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Bohemians's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 42% versus Bohemians 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 40% | Bohemians 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.81 xG and Bohemians 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.462 / defence 1.156 | Bohemians attack 1.088 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 0.927. Derry City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.462 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Derry City games / 50 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 51% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 23%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 4.35. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Derry City 30% | Bohemians 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 51% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Derry City 1.81 / Bohemians 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.462 / def 1.156 | Bohemians attack 1.088 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.109 / away 0.927 • Poisson stance: Derry City (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Bohemians xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Bohemians kick off?
Derry City vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 10 May 2024 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Bohemians?
Derry City 1 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is Derry City vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Bohemians part of?
Derry City vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 51% chance of winning, Bohemians a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Derry City and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Bohemians in?
Derry City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derry City's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.09x) against Derry City's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
51%
1.95
25%
3.94
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.98
1.17
Bohemians xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
4%
26.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Derry City and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Derry City and 1.17 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derry City's recent record stands at 36W 23D 13L from 72 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Bohemians, meanwhile, have gone 28W 20D 24L across 72 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Derry City against 1.44 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 17W 13D 6L from 36 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians's away record stands at 11W 11D 14L across 36 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.36 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 36W 23D 13L in their last 72 games (1.82 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 28W 20D 24L in their last 72 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Bohemians away?
Derry City's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.78 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Derry City or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Bohemians in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 4-1 on 12 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Derry City
3
Draws
2
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 5, Bohemians have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Derry City 4-1 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Bohemians?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 36%, Bohemians 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Derry City) and 36% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Derry City have failed to score in 31% of games; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Derry City's recent matches and 50% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Derry City's recent games and 36% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Bohemians tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Bohemians 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Bohemians 1-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.81 xG and Bohemians 1.17 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derry City fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Bohemians landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.46 / defence 1.16 against Bohemians attack 1.09 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 51% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 23%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 40%, Bohemians 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.82 PPG, Bohemians 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.