🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Cork City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Waterford.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cork City beat Waterford 2-0 at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.29 xG and Waterford 1.38 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Waterford landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.80 / defence 1.19 against Waterford attack 1.13 / defence 1.21, drawn from 28/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cork City 35% | Draw 26% | Waterford 39%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cork City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 50%, Waterford 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cork City's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Waterford's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Waterford arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.68. Form was overturned, with Cork City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cork City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights