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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cork City edge out Waterford 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cork City beat Waterford 2-1 at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.21 xG and Waterford 1.12 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.85 / defence 1.10 against Waterford attack 0.81 / defence 1.12, drawn from 10/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cork City 38% | Draw 28% | Waterford 34%, with Cork City to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 54%, Waterford 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Waterford arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Cork City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cork City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights