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St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cork City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St Patrick's Athl. beat Cork City 0-2 at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.21 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.28 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cork City fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 7/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cork City 34% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 37%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 54%, St Patrick's Athl. 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights