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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sligo Rovers edge out Cork City 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sligo Rovers beat Cork City 2-3 at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.14 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.29 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Cork City beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sligo Rovers outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.71 / defence 1.18 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.09 / defence 1.12, drawn from 24/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cork City 33% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 40%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 50%, Sligo Rovers 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cork City's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cork City 0.62 PPG, Sligo Rovers 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Cork City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights