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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cork City and Sligo Rovers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 5, as Cork City and Sligo Rovers drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 2.18 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.47 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cork City fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 1.06 / defence 1.23 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.14 / defence 1.46, drawn from 3/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Cork City 53% | Draw 22% | Sligo Rovers 25%, with Cork City to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 54%, Sligo Rovers 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sligo Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights