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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Cork City defy the odds to beat Galway United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cork City beat Galway United 1-0 at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.07 xG and Galway United 1.15 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Galway United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.77 / defence 1.28 against Galway United attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 25/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cork City 34% | Draw 29% | Galway United 37%, with Galway United to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cork City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 52%, Galway United 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cork City's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.

Galway United's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Galway United arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Cork City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cork City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Galway United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights