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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cork City and Galway United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cork City and Galway United finished level at 2-2 at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.02 xG and Galway United 1.16 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cork City beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Galway United outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Galway United attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 0/36 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cork City 30% | Draw 33% | Galway United 37%, with Galway United to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 53%, Galway United 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cork City's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Galway United's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Galway United arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cork City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Galway United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights