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Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Cork City 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derry City beat Cork City 0-1 at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.15 xG and Derry City 1.40 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cork City fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.85 / defence 1.17 against Derry City attack 1.24 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cork City 30% | Draw 28% | Derry City 42%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 49%, Derry City 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cork City's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Derry City's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.69. Form held, and they took the win. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights