Cork City vs Bohemians – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cork City edge out Bohemians 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cork City beat Bohemians 2-1 at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.15 xG and Bohemians 1.12 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cork City beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.97 / defence 1.27 against Bohemians attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 1/38 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Cork City 37% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 35%, with Cork City to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 54%, Bohemians 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Bohemians's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cork City 0.84 PPG, Bohemians 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cork City win broke the near-deadlock. Cork City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights