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Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Bray Wanderers 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Bray Wanderers 1-2 at Tolka Park, Final, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bray Wanderers 1.30 xG and Waterford 1.19 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Waterford outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bray Wanderers attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Waterford attack 1.02 / defence 1.20, drawn from 0/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bray Wanderers 38% | Draw 29% | Waterford 33%, with Bray Wanderers to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Waterford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bray Wanderers 100%, Waterford 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Waterford arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Bray Wanderers conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Waterford scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.