Poisson rates Bohemians at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Waterford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 34 as Bohemians welcome Waterford to Dalymount Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dalymount Park this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waterford's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bohemians carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Bohemians have won 4, Waterford 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Season Statistics
Bohemians's full-season record stands at 12W 7D 6L from 25 games. Attacking returns: 1.6 goals per game; defensive: 1.1 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 0-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 4 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 10 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 7 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 25 games (24%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 1 missed from 7 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.
The visitors have accumulated 4W 9D 11L from their 24 Premier Division appearances this term. Attacking returns: 1.4 goals per game; defensive: 2.0 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 5-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 5 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 24 games (25%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 1 missed from 7 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game.
Bohemians have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 1.10 per game against Waterford's 2.00. Bohemians lead on clean sheets this season (10 vs 2). Penalty activity: Bohemians 6/7 vs Waterford 6/7 this season.
Standings Snapshot
Bohemians hold the table advantage, sitting 2nd with 43 points — 7 positions and 22 points clear of Waterford in 9th.
At home this season, Bohemians have gone 4W 5D 3L. Waterford have gone 2W 2D 8L on their travels. Bohemians: Promotion - Conference League (Qualification). Waterford: Premier Division (Relegation).
Trading Patterns
Bohemians in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Waterford in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Waterford 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 51% | Waterford 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 2.03 xG and Waterford 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.951 / defence 0.994 | Waterford attack 1.246 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Waterford have an above-average attack strength of 1.246 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Bohemians games / 60 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 47% | Draw 23% | Waterford 30%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Waterford 3.33. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 80% | Waterford 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Managers: Bohemians (A. Reynolds) | Waterford (J. Coleman) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (10 meetings): Bohemians 4W | Draws 2 | Waterford 4W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Bohemians 17 – 13 Waterford • H2H markets: BTTS 80% | Over 2.5 70% | Win rates: Bohemians 40% / Draw 20% / Waterford 40% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 47% / draw 23% / away 30% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (70% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.65 (71% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 80%, Poisson BTTS probability 71% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Bohemians (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W • Waterford (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D • Bohemians home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | CS 2 • Waterford away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 2.60 | CS 0 • Form edge: Bohemians lead by 0.60 PPG (2.10 vs 1.50) • xG vs form (Bohemians): Poisson projects 2.03 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.30 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Waterford): Poisson xG of 1.62 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.60 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.4 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.65 (71% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Bohemians 8/10, Waterford 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 71% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Bohemians — Bohemians at 47% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 47% | Draw 23% | Waterford 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Bohemians 2.03 / Waterford 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.951 / def 0.994 | Waterford attack 1.246 / def 1.408 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Waterford xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Waterford kick off?
Bohemians vs Waterford is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Dalymount Park.
Where is Bohemians vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Waterford part of?
Bohemians vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 47% chance of winning, Waterford a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Bohemians and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
• Record (10 meetings): Bohemians 4W | Draws 2 | Waterford 4W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Bohemians 17 – 13 Waterford • H2H markets: BTTS 80% | Over 2.5 70% | Win rates: Bohemians 40% / Draw 20% / Waterford 40% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 47% / draw 23% / away 30% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (70% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.65 (71% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 80%, Poisson BTTS probability 71% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Bohemians and Waterford in?
• Bohemians (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W • Waterford (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D • Bohemians home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | CS 2 • Waterford away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 2.60 | CS 0 • Form edge: Bohemians lead by 0.60 PPG (2.10 vs 1.50) • xG vs form (Bohemians): Poisson projects 2.03 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.30 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Waterford): Poisson xG of 1.62 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.60 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.4 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.65 (71% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Bohemians 8/10, Waterford 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 71% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Bohemians — Bohemians at 47% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Bohemians vs Waterford?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture