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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 31 as Bohemians welcome Waterford to Dalymount Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 September 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Waterford's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Bohemians) versus 1.10 (Waterford). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

Waterford have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Bohemians's 1 victories.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2025, ended 1–2 with Waterford winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Waterford have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Bohemians in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Waterford in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 46% versus Waterford 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 38% | Waterford 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.92 xG and Waterford 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.159 / defence 1.065 | Waterford attack 1.010 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.044. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Bohemians games / 65 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 56% | Draw 22% | Waterford 22%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Waterford 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 40% | Waterford 50%.

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