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Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waterford beat Bohemians 1-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.55 xG and Waterford 0.95 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Waterford outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Waterford attack 0.83 / defence 1.14, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 50% | Draw 28% | Waterford 22%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 38%, Waterford 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.22 PPG, Waterford 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waterford win broke the near-deadlock. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights