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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 46%, yet in-form St Patrick's Athl. provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Bohemians host St Patrick's Athl. at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 20 October 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Bohemians's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Dalymount Park this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.

St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

St Patrick's Athl. away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Bohemians have won 1, St Patrick's Athl. 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Bohemians in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 48% versus St Patrick's Athl. 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 41% | St Patrick's Athl. 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.42 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.146 / defence 1.089 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.972 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 0.960. Data: 69 Bohemians games / 69 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 46% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 27%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.70. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 30% BTTS from recent games.

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