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Stalemate at Bohemians's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 33, as Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.42 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.01 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bohemians fell 1.4 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.15 / defence 1.09 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.97 / defence 0.91, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 46% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 27%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 41%, St Patrick's Athl. 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.33 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights