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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Sligo Rovers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians beat Sligo Rovers 4-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.26 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.21 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.78 / defence 1.05 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.07 / defence 1.38, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 36% | Draw 30% | Sligo Rovers 34%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, Sligo Rovers 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.39 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights