Bohemians 1-0 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 16 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Bohemians (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier Division appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dalymount Park this season.
Shelbourne have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Shelbourne away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bohemians, 1 for Shelbourne and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Shelbourne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 51% versus Shelbourne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bohemians 42% | Shelbourne 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.19 xG and Shelbourne 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.951 / defence 1.067 | Shelbourne attack 1.005 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.146. Data: 51 Bohemians games / 51 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 35% | Draw 28% | Shelbourne 37%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Shelbourne 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 80% | Shelbourne 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 35% | Draw 28% | Shelbourne 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Bohemians 1.19 / Shelbourne 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.951 / def 1.067 | Shelbourne attack 1.005 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Shelbourne xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Shelbourne kick off?
Bohemians vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 16 May 2025 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Bohemians 1 - 0 Shelbourne.
Where is Bohemians vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Shelbourne part of?
Bohemians vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 35% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bohemians and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
Record (4 meetings): Bohemians 1W | Draws 2 | Shelbourne 1W.
What form are Bohemians and Shelbourne in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Shelbourne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (0.95) and Shelbourne's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (1.00x) against Bohemians's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
35%
2.83
28%
3.63
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.42
1.23
Shelbourne xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
10%
9.68
11%
8.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.23 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians come into this having played 72 games, going 26W 22D 24L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.71 PPG from 72 outings (32W 27D 13L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Bohemians against 1.71 for Shelbourne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bohemians's home form reads 14W 10D 12L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.56 points per game from 36 outings (14W 14D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.17 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Shelbourne in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 22D 24L in their last 72 games (1.39 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 32W 27D 13L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Shelbourne away?
Shelbourne's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.44 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-3 on 22 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians
5
Draws
2
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 3, Shelbourne have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shelbourne 0-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 58%, Shelbourne 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians) and 25% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne in 44%; Shelbourne in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Bohemians's recent matches and 39% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians's recent games and 25% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians defy the odds to beat Shelbourne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Shelbourne 1-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.19 xG and Shelbourne 1.23 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shelbourne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Shelbourne attack 1.00 / defence 0.91, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 35% | Draw 28% | Shelbourne 37%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, Shelbourne 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.39 PPG, Shelbourne 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.