Bohemians 2-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Monday 23 June 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dalymount Park this season.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Shamrock Rovers away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shamrock Rovers are 0.90 PPG clear of Bohemians in recent Premier Division fixtures (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Bohemians 3W, Shamrock Rovers 1W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2025, ended 3–2 with Bohemians winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 51% versus Shamrock Rovers 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | Shamrock Rovers 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.12 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.957 / defence 0.908 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.307 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.102. Shamrock Rovers have an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — the away xG of 1.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Bohemians games / 58 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 32% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 41%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Shamrock Rovers 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Bohemians dominate the H2H record, yet Shamrock Rovers are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 80% | Shamrock Rovers 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Monday 23 Jun 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 32% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Bohemians 1.12 / Shamrock Rovers 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.957 / def 0.908 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.307 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Shamrock Rovers xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 23 June 2025 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Bohemians 2 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 32% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (5 meetings): Bohemians 3W | Draws 1 | Shamrock Rovers 1W.
What form are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 0.96x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.31x) against Bohemians's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 56/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
32%
3.14
27%
3.66
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.43
1.31
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
9%
11.62
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.31 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians's recent record stands at 26W 22D 24L from 72 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 37W 22D 13L across 72 games — 1.85 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bohemians heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 14W 10D 12L from 36 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 15W 13D 8L across 36 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.62 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 22D 24L in their last 72 games (1.39 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 37W 22D 13L in their last 72 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.44 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians
1
Draws
4
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 5, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 58%, Shamrock Rovers 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians) and 33% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 47%; Shamrock Rovers in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Bohemians's recent matches and 42% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians's recent games and 33% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shamrock Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Shamrock Rovers 2-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.12 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.31 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.31 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 32% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 41%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, Shamrock Rovers 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Bohemians winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.