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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Galway United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians beat Galway United 3-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.13 xG and Galway United 0.77 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.94 / defence 0.84 against Galway United attack 0.88 / defence 0.87, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 44% | Draw 31% | Galway United 25%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 37%, Galway United 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Galway United's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.36 PPG, Galway United 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Galway United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights