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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Drogheda United defy the odds to beat Bohemians 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Drogheda United beat Bohemians 0-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.42 xG and Drogheda United 0.72 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.03 / defence 0.78 against Drogheda United attack 0.86 / defence 0.96, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 54% | Draw 27% | Drogheda United 19%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Drogheda United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 38%, Drogheda United 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Drogheda United's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.38 PPG, Drogheda United 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Drogheda United win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Drogheda United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights