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Shock result as Drogheda United defy the odds to beat Bohemians 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Drogheda United beat Bohemians 0-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.16 xG and Drogheda United 0.83 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Drogheda United attack 0.82 / defence 0.89, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 41% | Draw 34% | Drogheda United 25%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Drogheda United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, Drogheda United 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.39 PPG, Drogheda United 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Drogheda United win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Drogheda United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights